Recently, the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society held a symposium on the issue of wind curtailment and power curtailment. It mentioned that the "Renewable Energy Law" was used as the basis to protect the legitimate rights and interests of wind power enterprises, and it was stated that from 2010 to 2015, the power loss caused by wind curtailment and power curtailment was more than 100 billion kWh, compared with the Three Gorges and Gezhou Dam. The annual output of hydropower stations. Although the author thinks that the gold content of this data is worth questioning, it at least shows one question, that is, so much wind power is abandoned, is there a situation of oversupply in the power supply and demand relationship? If there is excess power demand, why is the price of electricity still high? No less? For wind power, what thoughts does it bring to people?

 

On the other side of wind power, disorderly investment and construction is worth thinking about

 

Miao Wei, the vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, once criticized China's overcapacity of wind power, and specifically criticized the 10 million kilowatt-class power station built in Jiuquan, Gansu. Although the local government in Gansu later refuted this criticism, the fact that China's overcapacity of wind power does exist. In the investment of wind power, the slogan advocated by the government is actually a steady profit. Before the promulgation of the "Renewable Energy Law", China's wind power industry was actually in a flat stage. Even under the stimulus of policies in 2004, some local governments encouraged investment in wind power, and even split large installed capacity into small installed capacity. The way to obtain the approval power of the Development and Reform Commission, but the overall is still in a stable development stage. After the promulgation of the "Renewable Energy Law" and the national plan of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" to launch 10 million kilowatts of installed capacity, the dual promotion of laws and policies has increased the confidence of wind power investors. Coupled with the endorsement of the government and the fact that the on-grid price of wind power was higher than the on-grid price of traditional fossil energy power generation, and the subsequent emergence of wind power profit benchmarks in the carbon trading process, etc., the enthusiasm for wind power investment is high, and the local government is also interested in it. Approved expansion of installed capacity approval.

 

The reality of wind power, overcapacity causes a chain reaction

 

The formation of wind power overcapacity is multi-faceted, the most direct reason is that the consumption of wind power is limited on the transmission channel. The distance from the wind farm to the power grid is too far, and the necessary transmission channels are lacking, and the power grid enterprises are unwilling to bear the construction cost of such transmission channels. Even long-distance transmission channels are affected by grid-connected technology and local protectionism of traditional fossil energy, and the implementation of power transmission is weak. In addition, the general wind farm construction area is not an economically developed area, and the consumption of electric energy is not large. Therefore, there is no transmission channel to send out the electricity generated by wind power, and the local economic development level cannot absorb it, so there is a formal surplus of wind power.

 

The surplus in the form of wind power has brought a chain reaction, the most direct is the loss of wind power investors, and the second is a serious threat to the wind power equipment manufacturing industry in the industrial chain. The overcapacity of wind power has become one of the important factors restricting the healthy development of the wind power manufacturing industry. Even some state-owned enterprises that lack an early warning mechanism for production and production have disordered production plans, resulting in a backlog of inventories, and then price wars between enterprises. The loss of the chain, the living environment of upstream and downstream enterprises is poor. Furthermore, the phenomenon of overcapacity in wind power is also reflected in the capital market, with the stock prices of listed companies plummeting and even closing down.

 

The mortal enemy of wind power is not as simple as thermal power

 

In the process of wind power construction and development, thermal power generation, as the representative of traditional fossil energy power generation, has been criticized by people in the industry. Due to the historical reasons of past energy policies, traditional fossil energy power generation enterprises represented by thermal power have a relatively close interest relationship with the government, which is convenient in terms of policy. The game between traditional fossil energy power generation represented by thermal power and renewable energy power generation represented by wind power also has the background of the times, that is, the arrival of the new economic normal, the downward pressure on China's economy has increased, and the driving force for economic development is insufficient. , especially in the process of economic structural change, the demand for electricity in the whole society is approaching a staged peak, which actually increases the competition at the power generation end in the power system. Coupled with the far-reaching impact of thermal power on environmental pollution and air pollution, it is actually in a stage of reducing the number of power generation hours. It is reported that at present, the utilization hours of thermal power in one-third of the provinces in the country are less than 4,000 hours, and the two provinces of Yunnan and Guizhou are even less than 3,000 hours.

 

If it is said that the game between renewable energy power generation represented by wind power and fossil energy power generation represented by thermal power is inevitable, but what worries the renewable energy industry represented by wind power the most or is the enemy at present is that in the economy Under the pressure of downturn and low power demand, some local governments have taken certain administrative measures to shut down wind power in order to protect the interests of traditional fossil energy power generation enterprises represented by thermal power. The reduction in hydropower generation has protected thermal and wind power, but the blow to the industry as a whole may be long-term.

 

Where is the way out for wind power?

 

Whether the wind power generation industry admits it or not, price reduction may be an inevitable choice at present or in the future. In a short period of time, the possibility of economic recovery is unlikely. It is expected that there will be a five-year economic transition period. During this process, the power supply and demand may be out of balance, and the situation of oversupply will appear. For wind power, zero or negative electricity prices are not necessarily a competitive way to obtain power generation rights.

 

It is hoped that the power market will be established and improved. At present, there is no real market in China that can actually conduct electricity trading. For power grid companies, the establishment and improvement of the power market is to further enhance the service functions of power grid companies, and establish information transmission channels and information exchange channels between power generation companies and users. This is also one of the key measures for the new power reform. The key to the transmission and distribution price reform, which is the core of the new power reform, is to clarify the cost of transmission and distribution. Verifying the cost of transmission and distribution is actually the core of the core. Power generation companies will also be required to compete within a reasonable income range. In the price war between wind power and thermal power, it is believed that with the passage of time, the advantages of wind power will gradually become apparent. Seek new ways of local consumption, such as the wind power clean heating pilot project in Urumqi, such as the wind power hydrogen production project.

 

When the government implements the pricing power of the on-grid electricity price, it also needs to consider whether to appropriately reduce the electricity price in exchange for the increase in electricity demand, so as to maintain the original profit. But for the natural monopoly power grid, it is estimated that it will be difficult. According to the "13th Five-Year Plan" plan, by 2020, the installed capacity of wind power will exceed 200 million kilowatts. Although the blueprint is good, how to reach the destination is also a question worth thinking about.