Last year, electricity consumption in China's secondary industry fell by 1.4% year-on-year, showing the first negative growth in 40 years. The electricity consumption of the whole society increased by only 0.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year.
In the "2016 National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report", the authoritative publishing organization of China's electric power data, the Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as the China Electricity Council) pointed out that in 2015, the electricity consumption of China's secondary industry decreased by 1.4% year-on-year. This is the first negative growth in 40 years.
The secondary industry is the main industrial sector of the national economy and the main source of power for the growth of the national economy. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water production and supply, construction, etc., the electricity consumption of the secondary industry is sluggish, reflecting the overall development trend of the secondary industry and the national economy.
The decline in electricity consumption in the secondary industry has also resulted in a slow growth of electricity consumption in the whole society. In 2015, the electricity consumption of the whole society in China was 5.55 trillion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 percentage points.
The China Electricity Council stated that the growth rate of fixed asset investment, especially real estate investment, continued to slow down, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% and 6.7% in the electricity consumption of the ferrous metal smelting and building materials industries. The growth rate of 1.3 percentage points is the main reason for the decline in electricity consumption in the secondary industry and the slow growth of electricity consumption in the whole society.
China's electricity supply and demand show a trend of further relaxation and surplus in some areas. When analyzing the national power supply and demand situation in 2015, the China Electricity Council pointed out that last year, the major power companies in the country completed a total investment of 869.4 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year. Among them, the power grid company completed the grid investment of 460.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%; completed the power supply investment of 409.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%.
In 2015, the country's net increase in installed power generation capacity was 140 million kilowatts, a record high in annual production scale. The utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 3,969 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 349 hours, which has been declining for three consecutive years. The non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity and the proportion of power generation increased by 8.1 and 8.3 percentage points respectively compared with 2010, and the power supply structure has been optimized year by year.
One of the main features of power supply is that the annual hydropower investment has dropped by 17% year-on-year with the same caliber, which has been declining for two consecutive years, and the equipment utilization hours have maintained a high level.
The second is the rapid growth of grid-connected wind power, solar power installed capacity and power generation, especially wind power. Affected by the expected adjustment of wind power on-grid tariffs in early 2016, the new grid-connected wind power installed capacity in infrastructure construction in 2015 reached a new high. By the end of the year, the national grid-connected wind power installed capacity was 130 million kilowatt. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, wind power has grown explosively, with a cumulative net increase of nearly 100 million kilowatts.
Taking into account the annual temperature level, the China Electricity Council predicts that the electricity consumption of the whole society in 2016 will increase by 1%-2% year-on-year, which is slightly higher than the growth rate of electricity consumption of the whole society in 2015.
The forecast report pointed out that in 2016, the overall macroeconomic growth rate will show a steady and slow decline trend, and the overall judgment of electricity demand is still sluggish. However, due to factors such as a low base, it is expected that the power consumption decline in the building materials and ferrous metal smelting industries, which will reduce the growth in power consumption in 2015, will be narrowed in 2016. In addition, driven by economic transformation, factors such as information consumption, photovoltaic poverty alleviation, and urbanization development will continue to drive the tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption to maintain rapid growth.
Changes in temperature will be an uncertain factor affecting the growth of electricity. In the case of low-speed growth of electricity, if the temperature fluctuates greatly, its influence on the increase of electricity consumption in the whole society may reach about 1 percentage point.
In addition, the reduction of electricity prices for industrial and commercial sales and the direct transactions of electricity users have reduced the production costs of electricity-consuming enterprises, helped to improve business operations and increase electricity consumption. The implementation of electric energy substitution in some areas can not only promote the prevention and control of air pollution, energy conservation and emission reduction, but also promote the growth of electricity consumption.
Regarding the electricity supply situation in 2016, the China Electricity Council estimates that the new installed capacity of power generation will be about 100 million kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation will be about 52 million kilowatts. At the end of the year, the national installed power generation capacity reached 1.61 billion kilowatts, an increase of about 6.5% year-on-year, including 330 million kilowatts of hydropower, 34.5 million kilowatts of nuclear power, 150 million kilowatts of grid-connected wind power, and about 57 million kilowatts of grid-connected solar power. 36% or so.
After a comprehensive balance analysis, the China Electricity Council predicts that the country's power supply capacity is generally surplus and some areas are surplus. Among them, the northeast and northwest regions have more excess power supply capacity, the power supply and demand in North China is generally balanced, and some provinces are prosperous, and the power supply and demand in Central China, East China, and South China are generally loose, and many provinces are surplus.
According to the median calculation of the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society of 1%-2%, it is estimated that the utilization hours of power generation equipment are about 3,700 hours, of which the utilization hours of thermal power equipment are about 4,000 hours, which will continue to hit a new low.
The growth rate of energy and power demand is slowing down. How to digest the existing surplus power is a new task faced by China's power industry. The China Electricity Council suggested that the scale of new construction of power sources should be strictly controlled, and the scale of production should be reasonably reduced. At the same time, the proportion of peak-shaving power sources should be increased, and hydropower and nuclear power projects should be prioritized. In addition, the construction of power transmission channels outside clean energy bases and the construction of urban and rural distribution networks should be accelerated. Retrofit.
Regarding the problems of "abandoning wind", "abandoning light" and "abandoning water", the China Electricity Council said that on the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen the unified planning of power, and truly achieve coordination between various power sources and power grids. , the regional layout and projects are coordinated with the consumption market, supporting power grids and peak-shaving power sources; on the other hand, it is necessary to adjust the development ideas of new energy power generation. The development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation should adhere to the principle of combining concentration and decentralization, and encourage the central and eastern regions to disperse, Distributed development.
The China Electricity Council also suggested that comprehensive solutions should be taken in the operation of the power system: first, to build inter-regional and inter-provincial channels to expand the renewable energy power generation and consumption market; Solve the problem of abandoning water, wind, and light on a larger scale; the third is to establish a compensation mechanism for auxiliary services such as system peak regulation and frequency regulation or an auxiliary service market, and to mobilize the enthusiasm of various units to participate in the auxiliary service market; The flexible electricity price mechanism and other means are used to tap the potential of the demand side and realize the increase of electricity supply and sales.