"2014 China (Beijing) International Energy Summit" was held in Beijing on July 28-30. Bai Jianhua, deputy chief economist of State Grid Energy, said in his speech that the country's wind power development can now be said to be 2.5 billion to 3 billion kilowatts. The current plan is to reach 100 million kilowatts by 2015 and 200 million kilowatts by 2020. Basically, the development of northern Shaanxi will take the lead, with the northeast, northwest, and northern part of North China.
Bai Jianhua said, how will our electricity demand support economic and social development? By 2050, there will be energy substitution, electricity will be used to replace coal, and oil will be replaced. What will the electricity growth look like at this time? We may make medium and long-term forecasts, considering our recent Changes in demand and arrangements for mid- and long-term changes can only be achieved in the mid- to long-term and near-term coordination.
The following is the transcript:
[Bai Jianhua]: Leaders and experts, good afternoon! I am very pleased to have the opportunity to communicate with you. The topic of my exchange today is the development of clean energy in my country and cross-regional transmission. Everyone is more concerned about the development of clean energy now, and I will talk about power-related issues. What is the development trend of hydropower, nuclear power, etc.?
I will talk about three aspects. On the agenda of today's meeting, the big energy system is written. I will talk about the big energy system in a little bit. The first is to carry out research on energy and power planning with a large energy system. Second, the prospect of the development of clean energy power generation. Third, on the basis of the clean energy development outlook, take a look at our mid- and long-term cross-regional power flow and the mid- and long-term power grid development pattern, and share some of the research results with you.
This PPT tells you that predicting the future development of energy and power requires the overall scenario design of energy and power development, which is the big concept of "big energy concept". When I do power planning, I should refer to various national and local energy plans. We need to do some special sorting out on the basis of analyzing the national energy strategic system plan and various special plans. We need to make out the conditions related to power planning. . In our power development plan, we need to fully analyze various national and local plans. On the basis of this plan, we design one or several sets of boundary conditions, that is, the possible development of power and the development of power-related energy. On this basis, we need to do the scenario design of power development, including the development of power supply and cross-regional power grid, as well as wind power and solar energy. After the accelerated development, we will face the problem of high-efficiency sales. We need to do detailed simulation and take a look at wind power. , whether solar energy can be absorbed efficiently.
Third, combined with the development of wind power, let's see if other power sources can follow, and do a frequency regulation analysis. Through these three aspects of research, we can give the scenario of power development, that is, it can meet the peak regulation of power and electricity. Demand and load fluctuation demand, which may be the more important aspects we have to do. Coming out the power planning scheme, we can combine the energy planning to give the entire energy and power comprehensive development scenario.
On this basis, we need to make an overall evaluation of the development of electric power. In this evaluation, the development of energy and electric power should be placed in the entire national economy. Using the model of economic development, we should calculate various benefits, including economic benefits, environmental benefits, and other benefits. There are other social benefits and so on, we have to do a comprehensive analysis. On this basis, let’s see if the energy and power development scenarios we propose are relatively good. If the various evaluations have a relatively high effect, we will reverse this scenario and propose revisions based on some plans at the central and local levels. After our power development scenarios and energy development scenarios are more coordinated with local economic and energy development, we believe that this plan is better, and this is a large-scale planning system for coordinated development. General energy from special planning, to comprehensive planning, to power development planning, this process should be said that there are many topics to study, I have done dozens of studies, including energy transportation, coal development, environmental space for power The impact of development, which can do many topics. Basically what I'm talking about is that the "big energy concept" has a unified coordination.
Our planning is to coordinate and sustainable is the general direction of energy and power development. Our research should be done with the help of various stakeholders, rich information resources, and professional research strength. We do power grids, power sources, including electricity. We may not be able to do it ourselves, and we may need to find some oil and gas, coal. , transportation, environment, water resources, etc. to complete this planning. Then through the integration of these professional forces, a scientific and unified development plan is formed, a coordinated allocation pattern of energy resources in the country, each region, and each province is formed, and the natural environment and the balance of the transportation system are considered as a whole. This is what can be achieved through this research. an effect.
In what areas should coordination be achieved? First of all, to achieve coordination between industries, it is now found that other industries will also encounter power planning when planning, but we often find that some of their materials are relatively old, and even the terms are outdated. It is necessary to find a point of convergence in the planning of different industries, and work together to do a coordinated work between various industries. In this way, the data, information, important development directions and major projects of the industries will be more coordinated.
Second, the coordination between all parts of the country, whether it is energy or power planning, whether it is done in various places, if it is a simple two, is often much larger than the overall planning or development strategy of our country. If so If there is no coordination, the government will make a set of plans, and the local provinces and municipalities will make a set of plans. If there is no coordination, many problems will definitely occur in the implementation.
Third, the coordination of upstream and downstream. When doing power planning, it may be how to configure the power grid. Where is the market through the power grid? Where is the configuration? This is often not enough attention. When we plan wind power and solar power generation, we often find that there are very few power grids here, which may be out of line. Now the wind power is subdivided and the ability to charge across borders is not enough. This is the coordination of upstream and downstream.
There is also the coordination of various energy types. After the real wind power, solar power, and hydropower become larger, they are constantly decreasing. In addition, because wind power plants are fluctuating, they have to provide many services, including deep conditions. Its power generation is large and its circulation is small. However, if the electricity price is not adjusted, its business will decline. The operation, including the economic policy, has not been able to keep up with the adjustment. There are still many incongruent parts in this area.
Sixth, the new coordination in the near future, there is a problem with power planning, the compound demand growth in the past two years is relatively weak, has it been kept so slow, or can continue to play for 20 or 30 years after the short-term production. For even longer-efficient industries, we have a problem with the planning we make in one or two years. Therefore, we will look at five years, ten years, twenty years, or even thirty years. Some are now studying until 2050. Look at this stage, the entire economic and social development stage of our country, and how our electricity demand will be supported. With economic and social development, by 2050, energy will be replaced, electricity will be used instead of coal, and oil will be replaced. What will the growth of electricity be like at this time? It is possible to make medium- and long-term forecasts, consider the changes in our recent demand, and arrange for medium- and long-term changes. Coordination will be achieved in the medium to long term and in the near term. To do a good job of energy planning, we must see what the future energy supply of our country will be like.
Our country's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" outlines that we will build five major energy bases, one is Xinjiang energy base, which is Ordos (7.38, 0.00, 0.00%), the other is Shanxi, and eastern Inner Mongolia, as well as the five major energy bases in Southwest China and Xinjiang. The national comprehensive energy base, plus the southeastern coastal and eastern coastal nuclear power areas, our country's future energy is basically in these five areas, plus some nuclear power. In addition, our country's electricity import is also a trend. Our country's five major bases, together with nuclear power, coal, and secondary power, basically meet our country's future energy needs.
There are a few things that everyone should pay attention to. One is that we need to increase energy production and demand, the intensity of energy conversion, reduce the increase in primary energy, and comprehensively develop our base. Maybe before 2035 and 2036, water, coal , wind, and solar energy are jointly developed. After 2035, some hydropower may not be completed, and the focus is on the development of wind power and solar energy. Another is cross-regional power transmission, which may be a link and bridge for energy development and clean goals.
How to install power supply, first of all, we must aim to minimize the total cost of power supply, including ecological environment costs, etc., and we have some time periods, some loads cannot be passed, we must put a parameter to avoid power outage losses as much as possible. According to the electricity demand of the sending and receiving end provinces and the power structure and layout optimization ideas, priority should be given to arranging clean energy such as hydropower, wind power, solar energy, nuclear power, etc., and coordinating power transmission corridors and paths to optimize the power supply from the energy bases on the sending end to the provinces and cities on the receiving end. , to form a power optimization scheme and a power structure optimization adjustment scheme, so as to conduct power and power balance analysis.
There are so many steps. The first step depends on the demand. This is the market that plays a decisive role. Electricity planning is also for each market. First of all, we need to calculate how much electricity market there is in the receiving area. This is the starting point of our planning. After we have completed the electricity demand, we will look at the demand at the receiving end. Anhui has some coal in the near future, and then we will look at the price reserve, and then look at the installed capacity demand.
The second step is to match multiple senders and receivers to determine the coal power flow. The basic principle is that the cost is the lowest. After we generate electricity and send it to the receiving end, if the low electricity meets the high region, the benefit is the greatest. Such a basic principle, so that according to the coal power market space, we can basically do an optimal match, so that large personnel can be matched. The flow of electricity and the pattern is made, roughly in what amount and in what direction. Then it's not enough to make this. We use coal power and peak shaving power. Let's see if the gas water, gas light, and gas wind of wind power, hydropower, and solar power are at a reasonable level. If the gas water, gas light, and gas wind are at a reasonable level It is necessary to consider the layout of wind power and solar energy. After doing these things well, we finally need to see if some plans are very large, and whether the power flow can be sent out. In the end, the total power flow can be obtained by adding up several power flows. This plan is systematic and national, and it is a nationwide plan that integrates various energy resources. It is very complicated. There is no brother unit of related enterprises to do it together. We have been doing this work all the time.
The second part, the prospect of the development of clean energy power generation, this prospect puts forward different requirements for the development of our entire electricity market. Let's take a look at hydropower first. The technology can develop 572 million kilowatts. There may be such a few bases in the entire thirteen major hydropower bases with relatively large development potential. One is the upper reaches of the Yellow River in the northwest, which may still have a certain development capacity. There are also Sichuan, Yunnan, and Tibet at most. Together, they have a development scale of more than 360 million yuan, which is about 45% of our country's overall hydropower development. , the production capacity divided by the technology development volume, the northwest development volume is very low.
In terms of wind power, basically our country's wind power onshore resources are about 2.38 billion kilowatts, and it can be said that it is about 2.5 billion. It can be said that offshore wind power is about 300 million to 400 million, but whether this can be developed or not is also related to various industries. , in general, these two together, the country can now develop wind power can be said to be 2.5 billion to 3 billion kilowatts such a situation. The current plan is to reach 100 million kilowatts by 2015 and 200 million kilowatts by 2020. Basically, the development of northern Shaanxi will take the lead, with the northeast, northwest, and northern part of North China.
It should be no problem that the development of solar energy can develop 3 billion kilowatts. From the perspective of the "Twelfth Five-Year" development plan, it is 21 million kilowatts in 2015 and 1 kilowatt in 2010. This is probably the case. This is the research I have done recently. The power planning will take 20 years to basically reach 2035. In 2013, our country’s total clean energy power generation, hydropower, wind power, solar power, and biomass power generation accounted for 30.7%. By 2050, hydropower, Biomass and nuclear power, the scale of which is relatively fixed, hydropower is basically about 500 million kilowatts, and then the development of biomass, resources are also relatively abundant, but there may be some other original plans, such as fuel and feed, which may develop 50 million Kilowatts are about the same. How much wind power and solar power were developed in 2000, and now there are such a number of wind power and solar power, about 1 to 2.5 billion kilowatts. Second, the installed capacity will reach between 3 billion and 6 billion in 2050. This is the strength of our development and the configuration of the power system. This is our major development trend.
On this basis, I will show you how our country's future electricity flow will be in the near future and in the medium and long term. We need to coordinate the power transmission corridors and routes, and optimize the flow direction and scale of hydropower, wind power and coal power bases in the northern and western regions to the eastern and central regions. After optimization calculations, by 2020, the 12 provinces and cities in the eastern and central regions will receive 350 million yuan of electricity. From 2011 to 2020 The annual increase of 280 million kilowatts of power flow, about 74 million for hydropower, and about 160 million for coal power and wind power.
How to send wind power? It is about 200 million miles developed, and northern Shaanxi accounts for about 85%, but in addition to the consumption in northern Shaanxi, only 9 kilowatts can be transmitted, and then northeast is 32 million, and the wind power in northern China is inter-provincial. The transmission is probably close to 30 million kilowatts. The condition we do is that the wind power should basically be controlled within 5%, and the current 20%, 30% of the air port.
The scale of electric power flow received in the east and central parts of my country is expected. By 2030, Sichuan, Yunnan and hydropower will be basically developed, and Tibet hydropower will become the connection point for power flow from west to east. The demand has gradually increased to the kilowatt-level scale. In 2030, it is expected that the power flow in the east and central regions will be about 500 million kilowatts. From 2030 to 2050, wind power and solar power generation will become the main driving force for the large-scale increase in power flow.
The development pattern of power grid, basically before 2020, will form such a pattern of several power grids. Our Eastern Power Grid, Northwest Power Grid, Southern Power Grid, and North China and East China Power Grids have formed several major receiving ends. Probably, Northwest China is relatively rich in energy, and Northeast China is likely to develop wind power in the future. East China does have to form such a pattern. In the situation in 2050, the pattern of the power system may change again. Even by 2050, our wind power, solar power and hydropower are not very high-scale. In the northwest and southwest regions, it should be said that they can stay in the transmission side in the future A land with a large sending end, so that it can be smoothed in the sending end area. First, meet the local needs, and jointly choose the receiving end area. Then, I have drawn the energy base of Shanxi. In the future, we will be a big sending end and a great receiving end. On the other hand, the integration of multiple energy sources and the cross-regional national power grid may be an overall development pattern. That's all I have to report today. I welcome everyone to criticize and correct me. Thank you!
(Che Jinxing from Sina Finance)