On April 10, the China Office of the Global Wind Energy Council exclusively reported the latest "Global Wind Power Statistics 2013" to this reporter, including the update of the global market status and the development of wind power in the next five years (2014~2018). predict. The report predicts that in 2014, the new installed capacity of global wind power will reach 47.3 million kilowatts, which will be a significant increase compared to the 35.46 million kilowatts in 2013.
"The global wind power installed capacity will return to the previous development track in 2014." Steve Sawyer, Secretary General of the Global Wind Energy Council, said in an interview with reporters that the strong growth of the Chinese market, the recovery of the US market and the growing size of emerging markets Its role means that after 2014, the global wind power market will resume its previous steady pace of development.
In 2014, the global cumulative installed capacity will reach 365.4 million kilowatts
Global wind power development statistics predict that the cumulative installed capacity of global wind power will reach 365.4 million kilowatts in 2014, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. The newly installed capacity was 47.3 million kilowatts, and the growth rate of newly installed capacity reached 34%.
The newly installed capacity in 2013 dropped by about 10 million kilowatts year-on-year, a drop of 22%, which is the first time that the newly installed capacity in this field has declined since its birth. It is not difficult to see that the newly installed capacity in 2014 will return to or even exceed the level of 2012.
From a regional perspective, the global market will continue to be dominated by Asia, Europe and North America in the next five years, and emerging markets will also show some changes. The report predicts that within the next few years, Brazil will jump to 3rd or 4th place in the annual market rankings and will break into the top 10 in terms of cumulative global installed capacity as early as the end of 2014. South Africa's wind power market has finally started, which is expected to lead to a wave of small-scale development in southern and eastern Africa within five years.
"The global wind power market in 2014 will continue to be led by China and the United States, especially the United States market will rebound strongly in 2014. By the end of 2013, the United States had a record high of more than 12 million kilowatts under construction.
At the same time, Canada and Brazil will also achieve record installations, while the installed capacity of the South African market will exceed hundreds of thousands of kilowatts. "Su Siqiao said that for the entire industry, the cumulative growth rate of 12.5% in 2013 means that last year was a difficult year for wind power development, but he is optimistic about the prospects of the global wind power market in 2014 and beyond.
Qiao Liming, director of the China Project of the Global Wind Energy Council, said that in the past two or three years, China's wind power industry has experienced slow development. Whether it is a tight capital chain or a slowdown in the development of new projects, many wind power companies are facing huge challenges. It will improve in a year or two.
"Last year, we were suspicious of China. The Chinese government set the target of 18 million kilowatts of new installed capacity in 2013, and in fact it has completed more than 16 million kilowatts. At the same time, the Chinese government has passed the 2020 wind power installed capacity to reach 200 million kilowatts. This new target means that the average annual installed capacity will be at least 15.5 million kilowatts. The signs from the past 10 years show that they are likely to exceed this target.” Su Siqiao said.
“2014 looks set to be a record year. Overall, non-OECD wind development is relatively healthy. The real challenge in the next two years is the stabilization of the European market, both onshore and offshore.
In the past few years, the fluctuation of renewable energy policies within European countries has posed a huge challenge to the stability of the European wind power market. "Qiao Liming said. Strong global climate policy is needed
The report pointed out that after 2014, the global wind power market will return to a more "normal" annual growth rate of new installed capacity, which is expected to be 6-10%. According to this calculation, the cumulative installed capacity of global wind power in 2018 will reach 596.3 million kilowatts, which is about twice the size at the end of 2014.
However, Su Siqiao is also careful to point out that without a strong global climate policy, it will be difficult for market growth to return to a growth rate of 20-25%, or to exceed the average growth rate of wind power over the past 20 years.
"Without a global carbon price, or other mechanisms similar to the global carbon market, it is difficult for other contributions of wind power to be represented." Su Siqiao analyzed that at present, the biggest selling point of wind power in many markets is its price competitiveness . In a growing number of markets, wind power has successfully competed with other power facilities that are heavily subsidized by the government, while both the wind power technology itself and its operation are steadily improving. Employment opportunities created by wind power technology are also an important consideration in various markets. In addition, the issue of energy security has received more and more attention from governments and academia, and wind power is the only choice to reduce dependence on energy imports.
The report also pointed out that national and regional energy deployment policies are still the main driving force for the development of the wind energy industry. China's support for wind energy is an important part of its energy strategy, enabling wind power to continue to develop steadily in the Chinese market. Conservative analysis, the growth point of the global wind power market in the next five years will be concentrated in Asia, Latin America and Africa. In a way, the real ambition is Saudi Arabia, which has set an ambitious target of 50 gigawatts of solar and wind power by 2030.
“The Chinese market will continue its recovery in 2014, driven by dissatisfaction caused by the choking smog that has engulfed some of China’s major cities. In addition, the offshore wind power industry in China is expected to expand in the coming year or Take off in two years." Su Siqiao said in a slightly humorous tone.
"Wind power has now become a mainstream energy source, and is becoming an important part of the power market in more countries." Su Siqiao emphasized that in order for this energy source to realize its full potential, governments need to take climate change seriously and take action as soon as possible. action.